State of Private Investment in Nature 2026 Case Study: Aurora Sustainable Lands
Carbon-First Forestry: Building a New Investment Model for US Timberlands
View PublicationFor most of the past four decades, the US timberland investment market operated on a single thesis: acquire divested paper company lands, manage for timber, and return capital at the end of a fund cycle. Returns have shifted downward from mid-teens in the early years of the market to 4-6% as the space grew crowded and timber markets softened. Carbon was an interesting add-on revenue opportunity in theory but often a line item on the conference agenda in practice.
Aurora Sustainable Lands was founded in 2021 on a different premise. Rather than layering carbon revenue onto a timber-first investment model, Aurora was built from the outset around the thesis that forests generating carbon revenue could justify dramatically lower harvest rates, that those lower harvest rates would produce measurably better ecological outcomes, and that the whole structure would generate returns competitive with or superior to conventional timberland investment.
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This case study is an excerpt from the State of Private Investment in Nature 2026 report co-authored by Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace and The Nature Conservancy.
