Market Insights Brief: Carbon Deal Dynamics, June 2026
View PublicationHow long does it take to sell a carbon credit? What are the biggest sources of friction in the process? What are the opportunities to streamline transactions for all parties? Ecosystem Marketplace and Carbon Capital Lab surveyed 48 carbon project developers and intermediaries in early 2026 about sales timelines and when and why deals fall apart.
Our key findings:
The VCM runs on relationship capital. Three of the four largest sales channels are built on personal connections, with contacts formed in prior roles the most common way sellers meet buyers.
Buyer readiness and price are the most common blockers to successful sales, according to sellers.
Two-thirds of conversations die in the exploration phase; sellers are
doing unpaid market education at scale, with buyer readiness a major reason deals don’t progress.
Offtakes move 3x slower than spot sales (15 months vs 5).
Removals take 2x longer to close than avoidance, but sell to different buyers. Removals are much more likely to sell to an end-buyer, while
avoidance credits typically go through intermediaries first.
Deal structure and credit type are better predictors of sales timeline than volume. For spot credits, there was no strong correlation between deal size and speed. Offtake closing times were more erratic, with a weak correlation between deal size and closing timeline.
