VCM Demand Outlook in 2026

What does demand look like for the voluntary carbon market (VCM) in 2026? To get an early read, Ecosystem Marketplace surveyed a sample of carbon project developers and brokers in late 2025 about how buyer behavior, pricing trends, and procurement activity compare to where the market was six months ago.

Here are some highlights of what suppliers told us:

• 63% say buyer interest is unchanged vs. six months ago: not growing, but holding steady.
• 87% report forestry and land use inquiries dominating demand, nearly triple any other category.
• Biodiversity and community benefits have become essential. Buyers want impact beyond carbon tonnage, and ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles are coming up frequently.
• Prices are stable: 47% report no change, and among those seeing movement, increases and decreases are split evenly.
• Only 6% of inquiries convert to deals, suggesting highly selective buyers and/or pretty significant friction in the purchase pipeline.

The coming months in 2026 appear on track for market stability and selective recovery. Serious buyers are active and procurement processes are formalizing, but overall market expansion remains limited. The market has stabilized after significant volatility, with prices finding equilibrium and deal execution holding steady. Buyer preferences for quality (well documented by Ecosystem Marketplace in recent analysis) likewise remain constant.

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